2024 NFL Week 14: Spread and Pick'EM

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 Thursday,  December 5, 2024



Packers

Lions -3.5

O/U 51.5 

Lions -3.5

Lions 31 Packers 27 (O)


  1. Bengals -5.5  vs. Cowboys 
    • Bengals: 28
    • Cowboys: 24
    • Reasoning: Bengals' explosive passing game (7.4 IAY/PA, 302 completions) should excel against Cowboys' weaker rush defense (39.3 Att/Br). Bengals' pass protection (CAY/Cmp: 6.0) also gives them an edge.
    • Spread - Cowboys +5.5
  1. Chargers vs. Chiefs -3.5 
    • Chargers: 17
    • Chiefs: 31
    • Reasoning: Chiefs' balanced offense (2.5 YBC/Att, 811 rushing YAC) will control the game. Chargers' weaker passing stats (4.2 YAC/Cmp) limit their ability to challenge KC’s defense.
    • Spread: Chiefs -3.5 
  1. Bills -4.5 vs. Rams
    • Bills: 34
    • Rams: 20
    • Reasoning: Bills' rushing dominance (851 YBC, 2.5 YBC/Att) combined with a strong air game (1522 YAC) will exploit the Rams' poor rushing defense (2.4 YBC/Att). Rams struggle in deep passing (CAY/Cmp: 6.1).
    • Spread: Bills -4.5
  1. 49ers  -4.5 vs. Bears
    • 49ers: 27
    • Bears: 16
    • Reasoning: 49ers’ rushing game (2.9 YBC/Att, 978 YBC) will dominate Bears’ weaker defensive front. Bears' inefficiency in passing YAC (5.2 YAC/Cmp) limits their scoring potential.
    • Spread: 49ers -4.5
  1. Seahawks vs. Cardinals -2.5 
    • Seahawks: 27
    • Cardinals: 24
    • Reasoning: Seahawks' balanced passing game (7.0 IAY/PA, 1568 YAC) will exploit Cardinals’ struggles in limiting passing yards (3.9 YAC/Att). Cardinals will keep it close with their rushing attack (2.7 YBC/Att).
    • Spread: Seahawks +2.5 
  1. Jets vs. Dolphins -6.5 
    • Jets: 17
    • Dolphins: 24
    • Reasoning: Dolphins’ efficient passing YAC (5.5 YAC/Cmp) and better rushing game (742 YBC) will outmatch Jets’ struggles in maintaining offensive consistency (6.7 IAY/PA).
    • Spread: Dolphins -6.5
  1. Panthers vs. Eagles -13.5 
    • Panthers: 10
    • Eagles: 34
    • Reasoning: Eagles’ dominant rushing (3.3 YBC/Att, 1465 YBC) and strong air attack (8.0 IAY/PA) will dismantle Panthers’ poor defense (404.2 YPG allowed, 32nd). Eagles trend under slightly but maintain control.
    • Spread: Eagles -13.5 
  1. Browns vs. Steelers -6.5 
    • Browns: 20
    • Steelers: 23
    • Reasoning: Steelers’ strong rushing (847 YBC, 2.1 YBC/Att) and passing YAC (5.7 YAC/Cmp) give them an edge. Browns struggle on the ground (1.6 YAC/Att).
    • Spread: Browns +6.5
  1. Buccaneers -7.5 vs. Raiders
    • Buccaneers: 30
    • Raiders: 21
    • Reasoning: Buccaneers’ balance in passing (6.3 YAC/Cmp, 1833 YAC) and rushing (2.7 YBC/Att) will overpower Raiders’ weaker defense (5.3 YAC/Cmp allowed).
    • Spread: Buccaneers -7.5

  1. Titans -3.5  vs. Jaguars
    • Titans: 21
    • Jaguars: 17
    • Reasoning: Titans’ strong rushing defense (2.3 YBC/Att allowed) will stifle Jaguars’ ground game (2.2 YBC/Att). Both teams trend under.
    • Spread: Titans -3.5

  1. Saints -5.5 vs. Giants
    • Saints: 24
    • Giants: 20
    • Reasoning: Saints’ balanced attack (2.5 YBC/Att, 5.5 YAC/Cmp) edges out the Giants’ inefficient rushing (2.5 YBC/Att).
    • Spread: Giants +5.5
  1. Falcons vs. Vikings -5.5
    • Falcons: 24
    • Vikings: 31
    • Reasoning: Vikings’ elite deep passing game (7.4 CAY/Cmp, 8.6 IAY/PA) dominates Falcons’ defense. Falcons’ rushing attack (2.7 YBC/Att) keeps it close.
    • Spread: Vikings -5.5 

Most Likely Games to Go Over

  1. Lions vs. Packers (61 Total, O/U 51.5)
  2. Vikings vs. Falcons (55 Total, O/U 45.5)
  3. Bills vs. Rams (54 Total, O/U 49.5)
  4. Bengals vs. Cowboys (52 Total, O/U 50.5)
  5. Cardinals vs. Seahawks (51 Total, O/U 44.5)

These games feature high-powered offenses or weak defenses, making them the strongest candidates for exceeding their respective O/U totals.


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